Almost every voter who approves of Manchin’s job performance (86%) gave a thumbs up to Justice, and he boasts stronger backing from West Virginians of all political stripes, including among Democrats (52% to 49%) and independents (63% to 35%).
It wasn’t always like this for Manchin, who was one of America’s most popular senators when he was tapping the brakes on Biden’s “Build Back Better” policy agenda. It sparked a large coalitional shift that earned him high marks with Republicans and independents, but that all evaporated when he gave his decisive support to the Inflation Reduction Act in July.
Manchin has yet to announce re-election plans, sparking speculation among some that the 75-year-old might not run. But Jonathan Kott, a former aide who’s close to the Democratic senator, noted that Manchin wasn’t quick to launch a bid when he was last on the ballot in 2018 either.
“He doesn’t need to set up a campaign apparatus, he has 100% name ID and he can raise as much money as he needs as he wants,” he said. “There’s going to be a Republican primary, so why involve yourself in that?”
Indeed, a potential primary contest between Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney, who announced a Senate bid earlier this year, could be messy. If Trump does endorse Justice, it could set up a proxy fight between Republican leadership and the conservative Club for Growth, which is backing Mooney.
As Manchin watches that develop, he’s hoping his bet on the Inflation Reduction Act pays off in the long run and that Congress passes a permitting reform law that would speed approval of a planned pipeline in his home state — a hope that’s reliant on Republicans effectively doing him a favor.
“By the time the election rolls around, there's probably going to be 10,000-15,000 new jobs created because of the Inflation Reduction Act. If he gets permitting reform done, there’ll be a pipeline that gets up and running,” Kott said. “I think all those things are pretty good campaign messages.”
For Morning Consult’s state-level survey data, weights are applied to each state separately based on age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, presidential voting history and — for a subset of states — race by education as well as an age-by-gender interaction.
Margins of error for responses from all voters in each state range from plus or minus 1 to 5 percentage points.
For more detailed information, you can download the 50-state data set for approval ratings here.
This story has been updated to reflect news that the Montana Legislature shelved a proposed changed to Montana's 2024 U.S. Senate primary.
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